Mastodon will lose lots of users to Bluesky, but the rest of the Fediverse won't; CW: long (over 1,200 characters), Fediverse meta, Twitter mentioned, Elon Musk mentioned by name, Bluesky mentioned
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Now that Bluesky registration is fully open, I expect hundreds of thousands of active Mastodon users to flock to Bluesky.
That'll be those who have only been on Mastodon and mostly big general-purpose instances because it was the closest thing to "Twitter without Musk" with open registration. The same people who staunchly keep using Mastodon like they used to use Twitter before. And Bluesky has given them the gift of an open but still central registration without having to pick an instance. I mean, it has yet to go fully decentral.
So as of now, Bluesky
really is "literally Twitter without Musk" as expected.
The results I expect are mastodon.social no longer being the most active instance and Mastodon itself no longer being twice as active as the whole rest of the Fediverse combined, not nearly. For all the other Fediverse projects, nothing much will change. They've always been completely unknown on Twitter. So those who have never wanted anything different from Twitter still sit on the same general-purpose Mastodon instance with a domain that hints at Mastodon. But I guess not for much longer.
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Bluesky
